Establishing a Range of Extreme Precipitation Estimates in California for Planning in the Face of Climate Change

For California water resource planning in the face of climate change, hydrological and distribution models require inputs high spatial– temporal–resolution temperature precipitation projections. We used a quantile delta mapping (QDM) procedure along with bias correction localized constructed analogs (LOCA) downscaling to produce 6-km fields that preserve relative changes these quantities from model developed wetter moderate warming (WMW) case Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 emissions scenario dry extreme (DEW) RCP8.5 establish range projected hydroclimatological conditions. In both cases, we found becomes more extreme, but sign events differs between two cases. The estimate is most broad southern California, where it varies by factor 2 50% across Sierra Nevada. This approach, adopted Department Water Resources, balances host practical considerations evolving state science for future